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erark Trading t Trading and auto lots in the weeks or months ahead. The disappearing consumer is further crippling the economy.
Greece's exit is absolutely necessary. "Its prices and costs are far too high under the Euro, so it just cannot compete on international markets," says Aliber. "The Greeks have suffered far more through all these misguided bailouts than they've gained by lowering prices or costs." The political gridlock, argues Aliber, is actually a good thing because it will hasten abandoning a disastrously overvalued currency, just what's needed to get Greece growing again.
The mechanics of shelving the Euro for its own currency are pretty predictable. One day soon, imagine it's late on a Friday afternoon, the Greek government will declare all banks closed for the following week. By Monday, the legislature will vote an emergency law that designates a fixed exchange rate of, say, 1 drachma –– the Greek pre-Euro currency –– for each Euro. By Monday, all corporate and personal savings in Greek banks will be denominated in drachma.
The drachma will tumble in value, so that almost immediately, Greek consumers will need at least 1.5 Drachma to buy one Euro. A savings account that held 15,000 euros is now 15,000 Drachma. But those drachmas will soon fetch just 10,000 Euros. That's a "devaluation" of 33%. "That number is the low-end of the range for countries that exit a common currency," says Uri Dadush, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment.
What happens next is the pivotal issue, and top economists disagree strongly on Greece's post-Euro future. To be sure, this isn't a play by Aeschylus or Aristophanes where the audience knows the finale. Yanis Varoufakis of the University of Athens foresees a Greek tragedy in which a run on the banks is followed by a run on the drachma. "Greeks paid in drachma will go to the ATM then immediately exchange their drachma for Euros people have stashed in their freezers," says Varoufakis. He thinks that the drachma will keep plunging against foreign currencies, and Greeks will keep bailing, causing a new crisis of hyperinflation.
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